This was an in the field interview of Simon Watson and me (David Zabarte) that one of our frequent lenders conducted back in March of 2017. I just got the footage and I thought it contained some useful info for both buyers and sellers with regard to tight inventory markets like we’ve been having for the past number of years here in the San Francisco Bay Area.
We have experienced a “seller’s market” particularly in popular areas like Oakland, Berkeley, and throughout Alameda County, as well as in Orinda, Lafayette, Walnut Creek, Pleasant Hill, Concord, Martinez, and on out to the farthest end of Contra Costa County. The market out in the East Bay has had a lot of people moving into the area from other parts of the SF Bay Area, and from out of state. This isn’t something that I expect will change much in the next couple of years.
Based on the economic research done by economics from the California Association of Realtors® for 2017 (check this link out for some interesting data) we have about 50% of the inventory that we should have for the population growth we currently are experiencing based on past historical numbers. People who own houses have not made the decisions to move at the historical rate that they did in the past which was every 5-7 years… the current numbers are on average about every 10 years is when people have been making their moves. Inventory has been tight partly because of this factor. Factor in the low number of new units that have been built since the recession of 2008 and you can start to see why our inventory is as tight as it is.
We are all paying close attention to what is happening with regard to the possible tax changes, and the interest rate hikes, but it remains to be seen whether these will have little to no impact, or moderate to severe impact on the housing market. I’m betting that there will still be quite a bit of demand for housing in the coming year.